Elections 2011 : A divided nation – Syria; a test for Turkey ! (tr + several languages)


Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika Büyükelçiler Toplantısı

Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde meydana gelen güncel gelişmeleri değerlendirmek, bu gelişmelerin önümüzdeki kısa, orta ve uzun vadedeki muhtemel seyrini irdelemek, bölge ülkeleri ile ilişkilerimizin tüm boyutlarını ele almak amacıyla, 16 Haziran 2011 tarihinde Dışişleri Bakanımız Sayın Ahmet Davutoğlu başkanlığında Ankara’da Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika Büyükelçiler Toplantısı düzenlenmiştir. Toplantıya, bölge başkentleri ile konuyla ilgili diğer merkezlerde görevli Büyükelçilerimiz ve ilgili Daimi Temsilcilerimiz katılmışlardır.

Toplantı sırasında Dışişleri Bakanımız Sayın Ahmet Davutoğlu tarafından yapılan genel değerlendirmeyi takiben, Büyükelçilerimiz tarafından bölgedeki değişim ve dönüşüm hareketlerinin görevli bulundukları ülkeden nasıl algılandığına ilişkin değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır. Bu çerçevede, Tunus, Mısır, Libya, Suriye, Yemen ve Bahreyn’de cereyan eden toplumsal olaylar ele alınmış, ayrıca, değişim dalgasının bölgede yer alan diğer ülkeler ve müzminleşmiş ihtilaflar üzerindeki muhtemel etkileri irdelenmiştir.

Yapılan değerlendirmelerde, Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika’daki siyasi değişim ve demokratik dönüşümün esasen geç kalmış bir normalleşme süreci olduğu, büyük fırsatlar kadar zorlu sınamaları da içeren bu sürecin uzun yıllar devam edecek ve geri çevrilemez bir nitelik taşıdığı, halkların meşru beklentileri temelinde ilerleyen bu sürecin başarıyla sonuçlanmasının mukadder olduğu, sürecin barışçıl ve düzenli olmasının bölgesel barış ve istikrar bakımından büyük önem taşıdığı, ülkemizin bu bağlamdaki yapıcı ve ön alıcı katkılarının tüm bölge ülkeleri ve belli başlı uluslararası aktörler tarafından yakından izlendiği ifade edilmiştir.

Toplantıda, özellikle geçiş sürecine giren ülkeler bakımından kurumsal ve ekonomik yeniden yapılanmanın önemine işaret edilmiş, bir yandan sosyo-politik dönüşüm sürecini yönetirken, diğer yandan halkların günlük ekonomik ihtiyaçlarına cevap vermek durumunda bulunan bu ülkelere tüm uluslararası toplum tarafından yardım sağlanmasının öncelik taşıdığı vurgulanmıştır.

Türkiye’nin başarılı demokratik ve ekonomik performansı, aktif dış politikasıyla bölgede ilgi odağı ve ilham kaynağı olduğu; bu itibarla Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika’da esen değişim ve dönüşüm rüzgarlarının halkların meşru talep ve beklentilerinin karşılanması suretiyle bölgesel barış, istikrar ve refaha hizmet edecek şekilde yönetilmesinde temel bir rol üstlenmesinin uygun olacağı değerlendirilmiş, bu amaçla, bölgesel ve uluslararası ortaklarıyla işbirliği, eşgüdüm ve istişare halinde çabalarını artırması kararlaştırılmıştır.

(Kaynak)

***

The EU’s cold shoulder for Turkey risks alienating a key Nato ally

That strained relationship was certainly in evidence at the start of the Libya crisis, when Ankara opposed Nato’s plans to launch a UN-backed military intervention to protect anti-Gaddafi rebels. Senior officers say the Turks have frequently intervened during the bombing offensive to prevent key Gaddafi targets from being attacked.

Many Western governments will now be hoping that the Syrian crisis prompts Ankara to reappraise its confrontational attitude, and work more closely with Europe and America on issues of mutual interest. The fact that the Turks last week hosted a conference of Syrian opposition figures certainly suggests the country is giving serious consideration to its regional alliances.

If that is indeed the case, then it would also be a good moment for EU leaders to reflect on where their own priorities lie. The political unrest throughout the Middle East that has been caused by the Arab Spring is likely to cause a great deal more instability in the months ahead. So it is very much in our interests that we ensure Turkey is allied to the EU, rather than falling into the orbit of rogue states such as Syria and Iran.

(Full analysis)

***

After all this bloodshed, there is no going back

Western intervention is improbable – Nato is overstretched and a Syrian adventure requires a commitment to potential regional war – and wouldn’t be welcomed by Syrians anyway. In Iraq intervention triggered civil war.

Turkish intervention is another matter. Celebrating the third-term re-election of his AK party on Sunday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, greeted “those who are focused on Turkey with great excitement … all capitals of neighbouring countries”. In light of the Arab awakening, Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbours” policy is about to be overturned. On Tuesday Erdogan again told Assad to stop the repression and implement reforms. The day before he’d expressed willingness to work with Britain towards a UN resolution condemning Syria. But it’s facts on the ground that will count. If many more refugees join the 8,500 who have fled to Turkey, Erdogan may order a limited occupation of Syrian territory to establish a “safe haven”. That – the regime’s inability to hold a section of the homeland – may prove a tipping point. It could also offer Syria its Benghazi, a base for organised resistance.

If the first enemy of Syrian democrats is the Syrian regime, and the second the spectre of sectarian violence, the third is represented by external forces seeking to take advantage of events. The Syrian economy may not be far from collapse. Any future government may be particularly easy to bribe in future years.

(Read more)

***

Ankara’s foreign policy at the crossroads

Will Syria Invade NATO Turkey?

La position «ambivalente» de la Turquie face à la Syrie

Syrische Flüchtlinge in der Türkei

Syria’s unprecedented isolation

Is This a Second Libya?

Who will take on Assad?

How Turkey wants to reshape NATO

When America Comes Home

Europe and the future of NATO

Human Rights Council Statement on Human Rights Abuses in Syria

Democracy, Human Rights, Refugees: Sexual Violence in Libya, the Middle East and North Africa

Hypocrisy of Special Agenda Item on IsraelVideo:

Erdogan’s landslide

AK all over again

***

Erdoğan’s Economic Revolution

La révolution économique d’Erdoğan

Erdoğans wirtschaftliche Revolution

尔多安的经济革

أردوغان والثورة الاقتصادية

Экономическая революция Эрдогана

Not surprisingly, Turkey’s capacity to attract foreign direct investment is now comparable to other fast-growing emerging-market economies. But serious problems remain. The ever-rising current-account deficit (6.8% of GDP in 2010) will require a second round of reforms. And unemployment remains stubbornly high, though employment is now more widespread than it has ever been.

For the first time in its modern history, Turkey not only resisted a serious global economic crisis, but also decoupled itself from the rest of Europe by rebounding strongly in 2010. This economic prowess, together with the government’s “zero problem” foreign policy, have helped make Turkey a leading regional power.

Turkey’s achievements form a case study in successful economic development. The question now is how Turkey will use its rapidly growing economic power.

 

(full article)

***

From Megalomania to True Greatness?

It is much more probable that – and this is something that has already been evident in recent years – Erdogan will let work on domestic policy reforms slide and concentrate fully on foreign policy. Mediating between Gaddafi and the Libyan opposition is much more glamorous than concerning himself with social security restructuring, for example. And this despite the fact that a new constitution is urgently required.

Not only because the old one still exudes the spirit of the military coup, but because without a new constitution, the country’s most serious conflict, the recognition of the Kurds as citizens with equal rights, is practically impossible. The current constitution is dominated to such an extent by Turkishness and the Turkish language, that Kurds and other minorities cannot hope to get a look in.

As long as this constitution is in force, a political solution to the Kurdish question is inconceivable. It is therefore now up to Erdogan to shift gear from megalomania to true greatness. If he is prepared to enter into a constructive dialogue with the Kurds and Social Democrats, he can really make history.

(full analysis)

***

Islam and Politics in Turkey

Despite all fears, it is wrong to judge the party by its intentions instead of its deeds. The Kemalist establishment sees itself as an enlightened force in the country – but it has clung to an authoritarian and undemocratic understanding of the state for decades. No change is to be expected from that quarter any time soon. But if young intellectuals from the Kemalist camp were to initiate a process of modernisation, they could again become a real alternative to the AKP.

Since it was formed, the AKP has steadily evolved into a new kind of centrist party in Turkish politics – a fact confirmed by the outcomes of the parliamentary elections in 2002 and 2007. Erdogan’s sweeping electoral victory in 2007 was due to the fact that his government had implemented more reforms in the five years of its first term than all the secular governments had in the 50 years before.

The AKP’s transformation into a modern centre-right party seems convincing and makes it attractive to many voters. The party, moreover, has no serious political competition. But it can only command that middle ground and keep the Kemalist camp in check as long as it sticks to its moderately conservative-religious line.

The party’s reform zeal and its EU orientation have waned significantly in recent months. That is not a good development and needs to be reversed. Above all, however, the AKP needs to keep its focus on the economic and social needs of the Turkish people. Those needs do not include more religion. The impression that Turkish society has become more Islamic is wrong.

Rural communities and the towns of Anatolia have always been religious, and they have become more important as a result of the economic upswing of recent years. Cities like Denizli are no more Islamic than they were 20 years ago; they have just become more important due to economic success. That development needs to be taken into account, and the only party doing so at present is the AKP.

The party understands the needs and sensitivities of a large section of Turkish society.

(Full story)

%d bloggers like this: